MTN Consulting is focused on network operators & their technology supply chains, tracking the economics of the network operator business and assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. Our coverage includes:
3 major network operator markets
- Telecom Network Operator (TNO)
- Webscale Network Operator (WNO)
- Carrier-Neutral Network Operator (CNNO)
190+ operators
Across the three major network operator markets in all key regions
40+ time series
10+ years’ market- and operator-wise data across quarters and years starting 2011
~50 reports published per year
- Market data and insight reports spanning –
- quarterly market reviews
- operator and vendor deep dives
- benchmarking and strategic assessments
- forecast/outlook analysis
Latest report
Network Operator Capex Forecast: 4Q24 Edition
This forecast presents our latest projections for the network operator market, spanning telecommunications operators (telcos), webscalers, and carrier-neutral network operators (CNNOs). The forecast is based on our quarterly coverage of over 175 operators, and reflects market realities through the end of 3Q24. Our forecast includes revenues, capex and employee totals for all segments, and additional metrics for each individual segment. In 2024, we expect the three operator groups to account for $4.48 trillion (T) in revenues (2023: $4.27T), $612 billion (B) in capex (2023: $548B), and 8.86 million (M) employees (2023: 8.81M). This report provides 2011-23 actuals and projections through 2028, and includes projections from the most recent full forecast (12/23) for reference. Below are the key highlights of the report: Vendor addressable market: Tech vendors sell various products and services to each of the three operator segments tracked in this forecast – everything from GPU server chips to fiber optic splice enclosures to radio antennas to network construction to cloud software. Their addressable market is directly related to capex, which captures most external technology purchases including a large portion of software & services expenses. In 2011, the starting point of our coverage, total three segment capex was $336 billion, 90% of which was telco. By 2028, three segment capex will reach $638 billion, and telco will account for only 44% of the total. In the intervening years, an important segment of third-party neutral operators of network capacity and space has evolved; CNNO capex was just $6B in 2011 but will hit about $54B by 2028. But the real story of the market is webscale: capex spend by webscalers has surged multiple times as these tech companies innovate, scale and capture more of the world’s digital value. In 2011, webscale capex was $29B, or 8% of the comms operator market. In 2023, it reached $193B (35% of total), and AI/GenAI demand is currently fueling it through another up cycle, which will push webscale to about $303B by 2028, or 48% of total (and more than telco for the first time). Telco This report includes region- and country-level projections for the telecommunications network operator (TNO, or telco) market. These projections are based upon MTN Consulting’s quarterly coverage of 140 telcos across the globe, spanning 1Q11 through 2Q24. For 2024, we expect global telco revenues of $1,772 billion (flat versus 2023), capex of $297B (down 5% YoY), and employees of 4.457 million (down 1.2% YoY). Labor costs per employee in 2024 will be about $60.8K, up from $58.7K in 2023. Webscale This report includes projections for the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market. The projections are based on our quarterly coverage of 21 webscalers, spanning 1Q11-2Q24, and they break out China from the rest of the globe. For 2024, we expect global webscale revenues of $2,584 billion, up 9% YoY, $311B in R&D spending (+6% YoY), $267 billion in capex (+39% YoY), and 4.284 million employees (+2.4% YoY). Our forecast for webscale capex has significantly increased since the last update in late 2023. However, the unusual spike in capex underway in 2024 will be followed by two years of decline. Carrier-neutral This report also includes projections for the growth and development of the carrier-neutral network operator (CNNO) market. The CNNO market is the smallest of three operator segments tracked by MTN Consulting, but CNNOs play a crucial, complementary role in the communications sector and own and operate a large portion of the world’s cell towers, data centers, and fiber networks. Our CNNO projections are based upon quarterly tracking of 47 CNNOs across the globe. Our CNNO tracking is focused on publicly traded companies but we also attempt to capture the significant private equity-led activity in this sector. In 2024, we expect CNNO revenues to total about $125B (+4% YoY), capex of $48B (+16% YoY), and about 120K employees (flat YoY). CNNOs’ asset base includes over 1,500 data centers, 3.3 million cell towers, and 1.1 million fiber route miles.
Latest reports
- November 15, 2024 Network Operator Capex Forecast: 4Q24 Edition
- November 6, 2024 Vendor profile: Scytale Alpha
- October 31, 2024 Driving India’s telecom revolution: Key imperatives from IMC 2024
- October 16, 2024 Telecommunications Network Operators: 2Q24 Market Review
- September 27, 2024 Telecom’s biggest vendors – 2Q24 edition
MTN Consulting is focused on network operators & their technology supply chains, tracking the economics of the network operator business and assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. Our coverage includes:
- 3 major network operator markets
- 190+ operators
- 40+ time series
- 50 reports published per year
Latest report
Network Operator Capex Forecast: 4Q24 Edition
This forecast presents our latest projections for the network operator market, spanning telecommunications operators (telcos), webscalers, and carrier-neutral network operators (CNNOs). The forecast is based on our quarterly coverage of over 175 operators, and reflects market realities through the end of 3Q24. Our forecast includes revenues, capex and employee totals for all segments, and additional metrics for each individual segment. In 2024, we expect the three operator groups to account for $4.48 trillion (T) in revenues (2023: $4.27T), $612 billion (B) in capex (2023: $548B), and 8.86 million (M) employees (2023: 8.81M). This report provides 2011-23 actuals and projections through 2028, and includes projections from the most recent full forecast (12/23) for reference. Below are the key highlights of the report: Vendor addressable market: Tech vendors sell various products and services to each of the three operator segments tracked in this forecast – everything from GPU server chips to fiber optic splice enclosures to radio antennas to network construction to cloud software. Their addressable market is directly related to capex, which captures most external technology purchases including a large portion of software & services expenses. In 2011, the starting point of our coverage, total three segment capex was $336 billion, 90% of which was telco. By 2028, three segment capex will reach $638 billion, and telco will account for only 44% of the total. In the intervening years, an important segment of third-party neutral operators of network capacity and space has evolved; CNNO capex was just $6B in 2011 but will hit about $54B by 2028. But the real story of the market is webscale: capex spend by webscalers has surged multiple times as these tech companies innovate, scale and capture more of the world’s digital value. In 2011, webscale capex was $29B, or 8% of the comms operator market. In 2023, it reached $193B (35% of total), and AI/GenAI demand is currently fueling it through another up cycle, which will push webscale to about $303B by 2028, or 48% of total (and more than telco for the first time). Telco This report includes region- and country-level projections for the telecommunications network operator (TNO, or telco) market. These projections are based upon MTN Consulting’s quarterly coverage of 140 telcos across the globe, spanning 1Q11 through 2Q24. For 2024, we expect global telco revenues of $1,772 billion (flat versus 2023), capex of $297B (down 5% YoY), and employees of 4.457 million (down 1.2% YoY). Labor costs per employee in 2024 will be about $60.8K, up from $58.7K in 2023. Webscale This report includes projections for the growth and development of the webscale network operator (WNO, or webscale) market. The projections are based on our quarterly coverage of 21 webscalers, spanning 1Q11-2Q24, and they break out China from the rest of the globe. For 2024, we expect global webscale revenues of $2,584 billion, up 9% YoY, $311B in R&D spending (+6% YoY), $267 billion in capex (+39% YoY), and 4.284 million employees (+2.4% YoY). Our forecast for webscale capex has significantly increased since the last update in late 2023. However, the unusual spike in capex underway in 2024 will be followed by two years of decline. Carrier-neutral This report also includes projections for the growth and development of the carrier-neutral network operator (CNNO) market. The CNNO market is the smallest of three operator segments tracked by MTN Consulting, but CNNOs play a crucial, complementary role in the communications sector and own and operate a large portion of the world’s cell towers, data centers, and fiber networks. Our CNNO projections are based upon quarterly tracking of 47 CNNOs across the globe. Our CNNO tracking is focused on publicly traded companies but we also attempt to capture the significant private equity-led activity in this sector. In 2024, we expect CNNO revenues to total about $125B (+4% YoY), capex of $48B (+16% YoY), and about 120K employees (flat YoY). CNNOs’ asset base includes over 1,500 data centers, 3.3 million cell towers, and 1.1 million fiber route miles.
Latest reports
- November 15, 2024 Network Operator Capex Forecast: 4Q24 Edition
- November 6, 2024 Vendor profile: Scytale Alpha
- October 31, 2024 Driving India’s telecom revolution: Key imperatives from IMC 2024
- October 16, 2024 Telecommunications Network Operators: 2Q24 Market Review
- September 27, 2024 Telecom’s biggest vendors – 2Q24 edition
In The Press
-
-
-
-
April 2024
What lies ahead for India’s Vodafone Idea -
Our Three Core Offerings
Research
MTNC’s research is focused on communications network infrastructure, a market attracting $3.5 trillion in annual operator revenues. Our goal is to provide credible, holistic assessments of where the NI market currently stands and where it is headed. Reports address market and technology trends, key players, and country dynamics.
Subscription
MTNC bundles its research into an annual subscription service called “Global Network Infrastructure”. GNI provides clients with an end-to-end view of the network operator business, assessing the big shifts that impact technology spending trends. GNI clients include technology vendors (chips, network equipment and software, IT services), operators, regulators, and investors.
Consulting
Our consulting services include: scenario planning; market sizing, forecasting, and analysis; organizational strategy; marketing support; competitive benchmarking; and, due diligence support for M&A and PE transactions. We bring experience and independence to the table, and access to the proprietary databases generated by our GNI subscription program.
In The Press
Southeast Asia emerging as the new battleground for cloud service providers
Fierce Network
Hyperscalers gain network infrastructure market share
Inform, TM Forum
Can CSPs realize opex reductions through AI?
Inform, TM Forum
What lies ahead for India’s Vodafone Idea
Fierce Network
SK Telecom’s enduring belief in metaverse spells hope for the technology
Fierce Network
BT confirms Starlink tests as it explores remote connectivity options
Fierce Network
Forecast on Telecoms Capex, Revenue and Business Models
Telecomlead
What does Qualcomm terminating its chip deal with Iridium mean for satellite telecom?
SDxCentral
ZTE stock slides on weaker earnings, falling revenue
LightReading
AT&T, Vodafone, AST hit a 5G satellite milestone
SDxCentral
Amazon, SpaceX extend reach with Vodafone, KDDI satellite deals
SDxCentral
Vodafone expands horizons with Amazon’s Project Kuiper
Fierce Network
Blogs
With each passing day, the 2G and 3G layers of telcos' mobile networks are looming as heavy loads on operating expenses (opex). That's due to multiple issues but especially energy consumption and related costs. With the exist
read moreVendors continue to wrestle with supply chain constraints in the telecom sector. That's clear from several recent vendor earnings reports, including those issued by Dell, HPE, and Ciena in recent weeks. Telco spending, though
read moreTelco network spending has been on the rise over the last few quarters. Vendor sales of network infrastructure to the telco vertical ("Telco NI”) totaled $55.5B in 1Q22, up 5.7% YoY. On an annualized basis, Telco NI revenue
read moreTelco NI's top 3 Telcos buy products & services from dozens of different vendors. Our research tracks 130. Some are relatively easy to classify into a segment, e.g. Corning, a "cabling & connectivity" vendor in our
read moreIt was the Greek philosopher Heraclitus who coined the phrase, “Change is the only constant in life.” Well over a thousand years later, Benjamin Franklin continued the thought, saying, “When you are finished changing
read moreOne of the many telecom stats we track is "labor costs", i.e. what telcos spend in salaries and benefits to support their workforce. Not a lot of other analyst firms track labor costs, if any. It's not an easy one to track, a
read moreOur Research Bundles
Meet Our Partners
Stay in the loop
Get our latest blog and research alerts by signing up below.